Economic Updates

Economic Updates

Hold up, the ASX200 is only 4% off its all-time high

It has been a tough year for the stock market in 2022 with a war in Eastern Europe and record high inflation have dominating the news. Furthermore, the drop in growth assets has been spectacular. Bitcoin has capitulated by almost 77% and the once exuberant technology sector has suffered some of its worst losses in years, with the FANG stocks droppi...

December 2, 2022
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US equities mixed but hold post-Powell gains ahead of today’s NFP report

After Wednesday’s explosive up move on what was seen as dovish comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell, Thursdays US session was more of a consolidation ahead of today’s all-important NFP figure. Us indexes were mixed, with falling treasury yields favouring Tech and hurting banks , seeing the Nasdaq as the only index to eke out a gain for the ...

December 2, 2022
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US stocks falter as yields rise ahead of Fed chairs Jerome Powell speech

After a positive lead from the APAC region on China re-opening optimism, US markets drifted lower as traders braced themselves for an expected hawkish Jerome Powell speech to be delivered midway through todays US session. The Dow Jones eked out a small gain while the more risk and interest rate sensitive Nasdaq was the underperformer, not helped...

November 30, 2022
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US stocks tumble, USD rallies as Fed hawks and China protests sour risk appetite

Stocks were sold globally in Mondays session as risk appetite took a hit on civil unrest and increasing Covid cases in China dashing re-opening hopes. Adding to this was the reset of the “Fed Pivot” narrative with a quartet of Fed governors throwing cold water on that idea, re-iterating the Fed was in for the long haul in their quest to tame in...

November 29, 2022
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The Week Ahead – US employment and inflation figures take centre stage

After coming off a fairly quiet, US holiday shortened week, traders will have a plethora of scheduled news to digest as the market continues to swing from risk-on to risk-off as it tries to predict what the Federal Reserves next moves will be. Equity markets drifted up, the US dollar drifted down as a resilient US economy and a dovish Fed minute...

November 28, 2022
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What is an Economic Bubble and how to identify it?

  Economic Bubbles are highly damaging phenomena’s that occur in financial systems that can cause a great deal of loss and pain to investors and traders. It is important that traders can identify the signs of a Bubble to both capitalise on opportunities and protect against the risk they pose.     What is a Bubble? &n...

November 24, 2022
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US stocks continue rally on ugly PMI figures and dovish FOMC minutes

US indices finished another session up after a wild ride as the “bad news is good news” narrative saw a steep rally after disappointing services and manufacturing PMI’s were released, then sold off into the European close only to rally steeply again as what was considered dovish FOMC minutes were released late in the session. All major indice...

November 24, 2022
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Stocks, commodities and cryptos bounce, USD dips as risk-on returns

Another low volatility, quiet news day saw risk assets reverse Monday’s price action with US equities steadily rising throughout the session on lack of any obvious catalyst. Tech outperformed on the improved risk outlook with global risk appetite seemingly unperturbed by the continued ramp-up of Chinese COVID restrictions. The US dollar so...

November 23, 2022
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Stocks and Crypto down, Oil dumps and pumps as market goes risk off amid China COVID woes

US equities finished with modest losses in Mondays session of a holiday shortened week in a low volatility session. The Dow Jones dropping 45.42 points or -0.13%, the more risk sensitive NASDAQ underperforming finishing down 121.55 points or 1.09%. Scheduled news flow was light with only scheduled speeches from Fed voting members Daly and Me...

November 22, 2022
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Markets continue to be uncertain as choppy conditions continue

Markets continue to be uncertain as choppy conditions continue   It was another mixed bag for the equity market last week as traders and investors tried to make sense of the current rally. With the indices seemingly pausing from their rally the market is still yet to determine if this current momentum is a true reversal and a sign of a potenti...

November 21, 2022
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Stocks drop, yields up as Fed hawks bash pivot hopes

US equities declined modestly in Thursdays session futures were pointing to a steeper decline after Voting Fed member Bullard dampened hopes of a Fed “pivot” anytime soon, re-iterating the Feds determination to see inflation lower and downplaying one soft inflation report. Stocks did recover during the session though as the “bad news i...

November 18, 2022
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Australian employment figures beat forecast – Rates markets and AUD reaction

Australian October employment figures released at 11:30 AEDST handily beat expectations with 32.2k jobs added for the month (15k expected), the unemployment rate also unexpectedly fell to 3.4% when it was expected to be unchanged at 3.5%. Coupled with yesterdays beat in the Wage Price index which showed wages increased 1% in Q3 paints an optimis...

November 17, 2022
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US equities rally on softer PPI figure though upside capped on hawkish Fed rhetoric and geopolitics

US markets rallied in a choppy session after a softer Producer inflation figure mirrored the Consumer inflation figure from last week, giving investors optimism that US inflation may have peaked. Gains were tempered though with Fed voting members Barr and Harker both made hawkish comments regarding the Feds fight against inflation and reports of a ...

November 16, 2022
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US markets break winning streak after post CPI exuberance, cryptos down again

The US equity post CPI rally of last week ran out of steam in Mondays session as consumer inflation expectations rose and mixed messages from Federal Reserve members saw a choppy first half of the session only to see a steep decline into the close with the Dow Jones ultimately finishing down 211 points (-0.63%) Futures opened Monday with a gap d...

November 15, 2022
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Soft CPI figure sees Stocks, Bonds and Gold soar as the USD and yields collapse

Risk on was definitely back on in Thursdays US session after a softer than expected October Core CPI print, coming in at 0.3% vs the expected 0.5%, combined with broadly less-hawkish comments from Federal Reserve members Daly, Logan and Harker  sparked the biggest rally in US equities since April 2020. The rally was broad with all major US inde...

November 11, 2022
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