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Geopolitical Events

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Geopolitical Events

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Can we see the forest from the trees? Where does Australia sit?

It has been over 21 days since ‘Liberation Day’ – since then, the forest of chaos ensued as lead investors, traders, and the full gamut of financial participants lost sight of where we stand. Not surprising when you look at the reporting versus the market. The chaos has led to mass loss of confidence from both the consumer and business sid...

April 23, 2025
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Market Watching in the Autumn – The Orange World Impacts

Global markets continue to search for anything they can grasp onto that points to possible signs of progress on global trade tensions, and by anything, we do mean ‘anything’ – truth social posts, X posts, this person heard from this person something tangible. It shows just how volatile this current market really is that inuendo and whim is be...

April 14, 2025
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Another Period For The History Books.

We have deliberately waited a few days before commenting on “Liberation Day” and the fallout that would come from President Trump’s new tariffs regime. It will go down as just another historical period of heightened volatility, uncertainty, risk, and a whole manner of market turmoil. This is why we wanted to put what is happening right now...

April 7, 2025
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Learning From Losses: How Successful Traders Turn Setbacks into Comebacks.

In the world of trading, irrespective of what instrument or timeframes you are choosing to trade, losses aren't just inevitable—if you choose to embrace the opportunity they present,  they also have the potential to be massively educational. According to studies from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, nearly 70% of retail traders ex...

April 7, 2025
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The Dirty 15 and the ‘liberation’ of what?

We would suggest that right now Markets are underestimating the impact of April 2 US Reciprocal Tariffs – aka Liberation Day monikered by the President. There is consistent and constant chatter around what is being referred to as The Dirty 15. This is the 15 countries the president suggests has been taking advantage of the United States of Ame...

March 28, 2025
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US Government Shutdown Showdown: Trump’s second term confronts its next major test

Introduction With the clock ticking toward a midnight Friday deadline, the United States is teetering on the edge of a partial government shutdown once again. The impasse—centred on a short-term funding bill—marks the first major legislative standoff of Donald Trump's second term in office. Although stopgap measures have been passed by th...

March 26, 2025
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Has Trump killed the Trump trade?

We’re learning a lot about the Trump administration 2.0, it’s going to be hard to bed down, it has a nationalistic principle like never before and unlike the first administration thought bubbles will turn into action rightly or wrongly as all checks and balances now don’t exist. What’s also different between Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0 is us...

March 7, 2025
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What to expect in Trump’s First 100 Days

As Donald Trump prepares to take office on January 20th, the world watches with a mix of anticipation and apprehension with what may lie ahead, not only domestically but for the world as a whole. The first 100 days of any presidency set the tone for an administration's priorities and policies. Historically, this period has been viewed as crucial...

January 17, 2025
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Ripple Effects: How the 2024 U.S. Election Results Could Reshape American and Australia’s Financial Markets

Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has already stirred financial markets, with various sectors and asset classes responding to anticipated policy shifts based on campaign promises.  Whilst such promises often go unfulfilled, markets are beginning to price in these potential changes until clarity on policy directions e...

November 8, 2024
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US Election live event: The market reacts

Join us for a special Inner Circle event as we examine the real-time market responses to the 2024 US Presidential Election results. We will explore market volatility and opportunities as reactions unfold across various asset classes. We will be hosting four live sessions throughout the day, led by our Head of Client Education and Senior Analyst,...

November 4, 2024
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Early Voting Kicks Off, as a Trump Presidency comes into view

Early voting has officially begun in several critical battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina signalling the start of an intense final stretch in the race for the presidency. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have also now entered the early voting period and what is interesting in 2024 over 2020 is that Trump has backed...

October 23, 2024
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The US Presidential Election 2024 – Handbook

The basics: We are in the final weeks of the 2024 US presidential election.  But what exactly are US citizens voting for and when will it actually take place? A US election always takes place on the first Tuesday of November – that means that for this year Tuesday, 5 November 2024, is when the election will be held, with the swearing of...

October 11, 2024
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Beware the Geopolitical trade: An evergreen trade risk to be remembered

The horrible events that we're currently seeing in the Middle East can sometimes create an unwanted attraction for traders. Chasing short, sharp swings in things like oil and other commodities of this ilk, might appear attractive for the here and now upside opportunity but be aware geopolitical trading always ends in bad outcomes. This is why we...

October 2, 2024
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US trading thematics Part 3: More than the Trump trade

We've held off making comments about the events of what happened last weekend. Everyone has seen it, everyone knows the horrible scenario that it was but it is probably also meant that we have missed really key economic and fundamental trading reasons U.S. markets are now in a very broad bull market scenario. Inflation It was only 10 weeks ag...

July 17, 2024
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Three Key Things Markets Will Be Watching This Week

As major indices continue to look weak and test key technical levels, ongoing market sentiment is difficult to judge, with several crucial information points coming up over the next few days. #1 The Fed Rate Decision The Federal Reserve's narrative remains hawkish in terms of medium-term interest rates. Friday's PCE data did little to calm fe...

October 30, 2023
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