Economic Updates
Hawkish Powell slams Stocks, Gold and Oil, USD takes off
Jerome Powell, testifying in front of Congress early in the US session, dashed the bulls hopes of a Fed pivot anytime soon after hinting that larger than expected hikes are a possibility and rates could stay higher and longer than the market was pricing in. This saw an instant reaction in risk assets as the markets priced in a terminal Fed rate ...
US stocks lift off after Bostic comments, EU sees record inflation print driving bond yields higher
A strong US labour market figure , unemployment claims dropped to 190k when 196k was expected, in combination with a record high Core CPI figure out of Europe saw the US equity session get off to a rocky start as bond yields soared. That all changed later in the session as a Bloomberg headline hit with comments from Fed member Bostic. Whi...
US Stocks Mixed in Choppy Session Driven by Data and Fed Speakers
US stock indexes went on a rollercoaster ride in their Wednesday session after weaker then expected US ISM and Manufacturing PMI figures were offset by prices paid showing a return to expansionary territory adding to inflationary concerns after the string of hot January prints. Adding to the mix was Hawkish rhetoric from voting Fed member Kashkari ...
Surprising PMI data for the UK
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of economic health where an expansion of the industry is indicated by a data release above 50, while a release below 50 indicates a contraction. On Tuesday, the Flash Manufacturing PMI was released at 49.2 (Forecast: 47.5) and the Flash Services PMI was released at 53.3 (Forecast: 49.2) for...
Hot PMI Data Sees Dow Turn Negative For The Year As Stocks And Bonds Tumble
US Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI’s came out better than expected , showing the US economy remains resilient in the face of raising interest rates. The January narrative of a Fed pivot on fears of an economic slowdown has flipped 180 degrees in February as persistently strong figures have traders repricing markets for “higher for longer...
Hot PPI and Hawkish Fed Speak Hit Stocks, Gives USD a Boost
A hotter than expected PPI figure combined with hawkish statements from Fed members and a fall in jobless claims saw risk assets take a hit in Thursdays US session. Headline PPI came in at an increase of 0.7% month on month (0.4% expected) while a drop in unemployment claims showed how resilient the US economy is despite the Feds recent tighteni...
US stocks rally on light news day ahead of CPI figures
US stocks gained throughout the session as they turned risk on ahead of Tuesday’s CPI figure which is expected to show a moderating of inflation causing investors to hope of a less aggressive Federal Reserve going forward. Tech led gains as the sector most sensitive to market sentiment, the Nasdaq finishing up 1.48% with the Dow and S&P 500 n...
Navigating the US CPI data release
The Federal Reserve's latest decision to hike rates by 25bps, taking the US Federal Funds Rate to 4.75%, saw the DXY trade lower from the 101.70 price level, down to a low of 100.82. This move lower was primarily due to comments from Fed Chair Powell, indicating that the disinflation process has started and that he expects significant declines in i...
“Deflationary process has begun” as Federal Reserve increase Funds rate by 25 bps
The US equities market has had a sharp rise to end the trading session as the Federal Reserve announced a 25-bps interest rate rise. Whilst the market had mostly priced in the 25-bps rise, it was the associated commentary that gave the market a boost. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powel made it clear in his statement and press conference that the Fed is ...
Week Ahead :FOMC meeting looms as next major catalyst
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve this week as they meet again to decide on the next set of interest rate hikes. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 bps with the accompanying statement providing important insight as to their sentiment going forward. The question to be answered will be whether a recession will be avoided, or inflation is ...
Technology sector facing cuts, but is it a good thing for investors and traders?
The technology sector saw some of its worst losses in 2022 as inflation ramped up and Central Banks were tasked with increasing interest rates to fight the record high inflation. As the cost of borrowing has increased, start-ups and other small cap, growth sectors have suffered immensely. The current Federal Reserve funds rate is 4.25-4.50% which i...
Market continues to consolidate as technology sector begins to rev its engines
The equities market continues to show positive signs as hopes for a pivot from the major central banks continued. The Nasdaq closed the week 0.72% higher and had a powerful Friday session in which jumped 2.66% higher. The S&P 500 dropped 0.66% lower and the Dow Jones fell by 2.70% for the week as the market shifted back into higher growth asset...
Equities remain strong after modest CPI figures
Equities remain strong after modest CPI figures The global equities market remains solid after modest CPI and inflation figures were recorded for the most recent month in the USA. The Dow Jones closed the week 2.00% higher, the S&P500 2.67% and the Nasdaq 4.55% as risk sentiment improved. The country recorded negative m/m growth o...
The US equities market at a tipping point after CPI data
The US markets are at a tipping point after CPI figures point to slowing growth and a potential pivot from the Federal reserve. The US released its updated CPI figures overnight as the data pointed to lower inflation and slowing growth. The Federal reserve may be buoyed by this data as it highlights that its interest rate hikes have been working to...
2022 was the worst year ever for Bonds so will 2023 be better?
2022 was the worst year ever for Bonds so will 2023 be better? Government bonds, thought as the safest investment had their worst yearly performance ever in 2022 according to analysis conducted by Edward McQuarrie professor at Santa Clara University. When referring to the performance of bonds it is specifically considering the decrease in price of...
