Technical Analysis – Retracement for US Dollar

Starting from the weekly timeframe, US Dollar Index has been consistently trending upwards for the last 16 months. Using the 9 exponential moving average (EMA) on the weekly time frame, we can see the US Dollar retracing back to the EMA, bouncing off of it, then continuing with the trend, as seen below:

Looking at the structure of the uptrend, last week’s candlestick closed bearish, perhaps signalling a retracement back to the 9 EMA on the weekly time frame.

Breaking down the movements of the uptrend, generally the higher highs create a floor for the pullback. For example:

Taking this into consideration, if the US Dollar continues to retrace back to the 9 EMA, the last higher high can be used as a base level for the potential floor, or the end of the retracement:

The range is between $108.45 to $109 as the potential target for the US Dollar.