Trading the Inflation bumps – The May surprises and what to do with it

The consensus for the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) is for a rise to 3.8% annually in May, the range being 3.6% to 4.0%. This would be the fourth consecutive rise in yearly inflation and would show that not only is inflation ‘sticky’ it could be considered ‘entrenched’ Monthly CPI indicator YoY% This headline will cause large...

June 25, 2024
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A frightened Hawk – The RBA needs to come clean

We know that this is slightly contrary to the consensus views but we think it needs to be said. The communication from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is unusually unclear, confusing and conflicted.  The view conveyed in statement, press conference and minutes currently we would argue counter each other. And the reason for this we believe i...

June 20, 2024
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When less is more – Why one cut in 2024 was good news?

We have been scratching our heads as to what exactly drove some of the strong price action in pairs, equities and bonds off the back of a further hawkish turn from the Fed at its June meeting. So, what exactly has promoted the moves on markets and what else should we as traders acknowledge from the Fed meeting First Powell has pointed to a po...

June 14, 2024
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The Tricky trade of Oil

Never has the oil been trickier than it is right now. The influences on the price are complex, varied and time dependent. It’s even trickier  when you look at it from the trade of commodities versus equities.  Here are the key things that are catching our attention with oil trading in spot, forwards and equities.   Spot vs. Antici...

June 12, 2024
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The race has begun – who is left holding the rates bag

FX and indices traders are now on notice – the race to restart economies is upon us. We have to-date seen Riksbank and SNB move policy but with the Bank of Canada (BoC) now entering the rate cut movement – the race is now well and truly on and the interest rate differentials that come into play with currencies will ramp up. Potential for Fur...

June 6, 2024
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Where are we? What are the lessons from May?

For years we have been told that ‘value’ will have its day again. The reasoning is vast, deep value in value versus overpriced growth, pricing in risk is stretched, the ‘free money decade is over, and growth will be left holding the bag. You can take your pick as to what reasoning you use regarding this market conundrum, but the conclusion is...

June 5, 2024
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Plateauing is just another way of saying ‘stuck’

Let’s make things very clear – Australia’s inflation rate is plateauing in fact I would argue it’s starting to reaccelerate in areas Australia can least afford. From a trading and momentum perspective this needs explaining.  Stronger Than Expected Print April's CPI data exceeded expectations and was at the very top of the surveyed ra...

May 30, 2024
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FX Analysis – USD bounces, Hot CPI fails to lift AUD, JPY softer on rising US yields

The USD saw decent strength in Wednesdays session, with The US Dollar Index (DXY)  rising from an open of 104.67, pushing through the resistance at 105  to hit a high of 105.14 on the back of firmer US Treasury yields. Despite this rally DXY is heading into the end of the month looking to have its first monthly decline since December 2023. Ahead ...

May 30, 2024
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Reading between the lines for the USD

Last week I highlighted Governor Chris Waller’s speech – however the more I look into his talk the more it needs greater emphasis as it contained both hawkish and dovish elements.  The Hawk Waller indicated that he would need at least three more months of "good" inflation data before considering a rate cut. He was suggesting this might h...

May 28, 2024
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Moving forward – the volt revolution of transport 

The transportation of the world is becoming one of the most interesting trading places in markets as we clearly have a structural long-term change coming as the world moves from the black stuff (oil) to electricity.  But the trader question is – what’s happening in these markets now? The black stuff - Oil Oil prices have softened due ...

May 23, 2024
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FX Analysis – USD boosted by FOMC minutes

Mays FOMC minutes released on Wednesday surprised on the hawkish side, bolstering USD and seeing the Dollar Index (DXY) retake the psychological 105 level. While the general view of FOMC members was that policy was “well positioned”, there were a few more than expected who were open to more hikes if needed, questioning whether policy was restri...

May 23, 2024
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Where’s the Federal Reserve at?

Slowing Growth and Potential Rate Cuts: Recent economic data suggests a slowdown in growth, contrary to earlier expectations of reaccelerating growth and inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and recent economic indicators point towards the possibility of lower policy rates in the near future. Key indicators, such as the so...

May 22, 2024
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Economic versus the Federal Reserve Policy Implications

Where’s the Federal Reserve at? Slowing Growth and Potential Rate Cuts: Recent economic data suggests a slowdown in growth, contrary to earlier expectations of reaccelerating growth and inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and recent economic indicators point towards the possibility of lower policy rates in the near f...

May 21, 2024
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FX Analysis – USD halts decline, GBP downside risks ahead

The recent USD decline stalled in yesterday’s session  with FX traders seemingly taking the view that there is not enough thrust from US data to justify a significantly weaker USD just yet. Aside from the inflation aspect – and markets may have reacted a bit too optimistically to the CPI and PPI – jobless claims also eased back yesterday to ...

May 17, 2024
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What a difference a (CPI) Day makes

We often talk about, ‘one piece of data does not make a trend,’ that ‘a headline is just a headline’ and that ‘assumptions are not facts.’ We feel this timeless market lesson has been slightly forgotten of late and the latest US CPI data may be case-in-point judging by the market’s reaction to the read. Let have a dive into the ...

May 16, 2024
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