ECB Preview – Euro steady ahead of rate decision – EURUSD analysis

EURUSD is heading into today’s knife-edge ECB rate decision lacking any real direction after Wednesdays CPI inspired choppy performance. Markets are split on today’s ECB rate decision with money markets pricing around a 65% chance of a 25bps rate hike, but a slight majority of economists polled by Bloomberg expecting a hold. Against this backdr...

September 14, 2023
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The Economics of Currency Pegs: Stability vs. Risk

A currency peg is a policy in which a country's government or central bank fixes the exchange rate of its currency to the value of another currency or a basket of currencies. The pegged rate is enforced by the country's central bank, which will exchange currency at that rate. Commonly, countries that participate in this practice prefer to peg th...

August 14, 2023
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Understanding Monetary Policy: A Guide to Hawkish and Dovish Approaches

Familiarity with terminology used in financial markets is arguably highly important for those investing in financial products. This understanding can assist with both entry and exit decision-making in the context of an individual's risk profile and objectives.  Two terms that are often used to describe the overall position of a central bank are...

August 14, 2023
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Bank of England Decision could send the Pound Lower

Since March 2023, the GBPUSD had been trading higher as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) maintained along their path to continue raising rates, as they battled to bring inflation down to their 2-3% target level. As the DXY recovered in strength, this led the GBPUSD to reverse from the high of 1.3130, trading down toward the l...

August 2, 2023
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FOMC Preview – One and Done, or More to Come? The Charts to Watch

The long-awaited July FOMC meeting is finally upon us where rates markets are pricing in a sure thing for a 25bp hike (even a small chance of a 50bp), the question that traders will be looking for to be answered is “is this it?”. With a growing number of economists calling this the top in rates, butting up against the FOMC June statement and un...

July 26, 2023
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Bank of England hikes again

Bank of England announced the latest policy decision on Thursday, raising interest rates for the 12th consecutive time from 4.25% to 4.5%, which was in line with expectations. Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to raise interest rates to 4.5%. Two members voted to maintain the interest rate unchanged at 4...

May 11, 2023
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RBA surprises the market hiking 25bp against expectations

The Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting today was supposed to be a done deal of another hold in rates, with futures markets pricing in an over 90% chance of that being the outcome. The RBA however, showing their determination to get an inflation rate still well outside their target band instead delivered a 25bp hike after last months pause, s...

May 2, 2023
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RBA leaves cash rate unchanged but leaves the door open for future hikes if needed

After 10 hikes on the trot and what will no doubt be a relief for mortgage holders the RBA held the official cash rate at 3.60%. The rate decision was fully priced in by the futures markets , so no great surprise on the actual decision , it’s the accompanying statement where investors look for clues as to future RBA actions that will set the shor...

April 4, 2023
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Red hot inflation in UK points to 25bp hike ,BoE and SNB preview.

Bank of England Headline February inflation in the UK came at a hotter than expected 10.4%, well above the consensus of a drop to 9.9% and indicating that Januarys dip to 10.1% seems to have been temporary. Unwelcome news for the BoE who have a rate  meeting today, before this figure the decision seemed to be on a knife edge, with the market...

March 23, 2023
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The Fed, between a rock and a hard place – FOMC preview

Todays FOMC rate decision is certainly in play, with recent turmoil in the banking sector caused in no small part by aggressive Fed hikes over the last 12 months, throws a very big spanner in the works of the Feds plan to combat inflation. Up until a couple of weeks ago a 50bp hike was pretty much fully priced in as the Fed refused to budge on t...

March 22, 2023
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Will the ECB continue with a 50bps hike as planned?

In the lead-up to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision this week, the market has seen significant turmoil. Firstly from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, followed by the news that Credit Suisse’s largest financial backer is unlikely to provide further financial support. This led to Credit Suisse stock plunging by more than ...

March 16, 2023
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RBNZ Cash Rate Decision Preview

The NZDUSD has been on a decline since the start of February 2023, with the price reversing strongly from the high of 0.6540 ending the previous week bouncing off the 200-day moving average and previous swing low price level of 0.6190. This week, we have the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) due to release their interest rate decision. Current ...

February 20, 2023
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Phillip Lowe apologises to the Australian Public over missed forecasts

Phillip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has issued an apology to the Australian public in his most recent statement. Lowe specifically apologised for providing guidance in 2020 and 2021 that the official cash would only rise in 2024. Instead, rate rises began earlier this year and rises have occurred in 7 straight months. Dur...

November 28, 2022
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Bank of England announces biggest single rate hike in 33 years

Another day, another hike. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve announced its latest policy decision to raise its interest rates from 3.25% to 4%, to its highest level since January 2008. On Thursday, it was the Bank of England's turn to announce its decision. As expected, the central bank raised its interest rates by 0.75% to 4%. It was the hig...

November 4, 2022
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Bank of England gives Funds three days to get books in order

The Bank of England has seemingly turned its back on protecting UK Retirement funds, after initially bailing out these funds who were facing serious liquidity issues in relation to their exposure to Fixed income assets.   History   As a part of new UK Prime Minister, Liz Truss’s mini budget she outlined big tax breaks for mu...

October 12, 2022
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