By Deepta Bolaky
In a pandemic-induced environment supported by ongoing fiscal and monetary policies, all eyes will be on the exclusive central bank conference which fosters open discussions about global policy matters. The 2020 Economic Policy Symposium will be conducted online from August 27th to August 28th and will focus on:
“Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy”.
Investors will eagerly await for the updates from central bankers, policymakers and economists around the world at the Economic Symposium while monitoring a packed economic calendar for clearer signals on the recovery path.
Investors remained concerned over the standoff by US lawmakers over the stimulus package as any delay in agreeing over a plan will be at the detriment of the economic recovery. Housing Permits and Starts came above expectations last week and we expect more housing data this week to shed light on the housing market. We will see more surveys to gauge the overall economic activity, consumer behaviour and the US employment situation.
The preliminary figures of the US Q2 GDP will stand out this week. The latest GDP figures show that the economy is poised to shrink by 32.9% – the deepest decline in decades. Markets are expecting some upward revision given the rebound in May and June.
The Antipodeans have been on a rally following March lows. The New Zealand dollar eased from this year’s highs after the RBNZ expanded the asset purchasing programme and opened doors for negative rates. On the economic front, traders will likely monitor Retail Sales figures, Trae Balance, Import and Exports for fresh trading impetus. On the other side, amid a lack of key events for Australia, its local currency will be mostly left at the broader sentiment of the markets.
Last week, we saw a key distinction between the UK and the Eurozone economic activity. The Eurozone economy loses momentum while UK business accelerates in August after renewed travel restrictions.
This week, German IFO surveys and GDP figures together with EZ consumer confidence and business climate surveys will help to provide more insights on the European economies.
Despite the uncertainty on the economic outlook and the geopolitical tensions, the momentum in the stock market continues to advance higher and we are seeing new highs. The amount of stimulus injected in the economy is driving the stock market. Investors will, therefore, eye the Jackson Hole Symposium as the updates from policy markets, central bankers and economists will be key in determining whether the interest rates cutting cycle will be for a longer-term.
In Australia, after the busiest week of the earnings season, we will see more companies releasing their corporate results this week. Key companies set to report during the week includes:
Fortescue Metals Group, NIB, St Barbara, Super Retail Group, Scentre Holdings, Ansell, and Stockland, Flight Centre, Afterpay, Woolworths, Ramsay Health Care, and Boral
Last week was another volatile week for Gold. After reaching fresh record highs, the precious metal plunged and slipped the most in seven years last week. Gold reclaimed the $2,000 level as risk sentiment faltered on Tuesday earlier this week but failed to hold on to gains. As of writing, the XAUUSD pair is trading around the $1,933 level.
Virus woes, US stimulus package, and geopolitical tensions are the current factors that could provide support to the haven asset.
By Deepta Bolaky
|Tuesday, 25 August 2020
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