By Deepta Bolaky
Heading into the last week of the first quarter of 2019, it is worth noticing that the stock rout in the markets on Friday happened despite a dovish Fed that wiped out the possibilities of any interest rate hikes 2019.
What happened on Friday? Well, Global markets tumbled on Friday following an inversion of the yield curve.
Looking at the graph, the grey area indicates that the yield curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years.
Is the yield curve inversion alarming? What are the current drivers behind? When long term rates such as the US Treasury 10-yr note yields fell below the three-month Treasury bill yield, it may not be an indicator of an immediate recession, but it is definItely a big concern indicating that market participants are forecasting that the US will get worse in the long-term.
There are a few drivers that caused panic in the markets on Friday- ranging from trade tensions to slowing global growth. However, it was the German weak PMI figures that triggered the sell-off.
Risk sentiment in Asia this morning was dented due as the risk-off tone on Friday is set to extend into the financial markets at the start of the week.
A slew of weakening economic data and warnings from major central banks on the slowing world expansion had set a negative tone for the last week of this quarter. Keeping the bearish tone of the bond markets in mind, the price action on Monday will be relatively focused on geopolitics amid a light calendar.
Asian session on Monday will be deprived of any key events. There will be a few central bank speeches and more insights on the German’s current conditions and business expectations with the release of the IFO survey.
We will see trade balance figures dropping in early on Tuesday. With elevated growth concerns, traders will analyse the variation in the statistics to see how it can influence the domestic economy.
Attention will also be on the US on Tuesday with the Fed’s speech, data on the housing sector and Consumer Confidence. Traders will likely monitor the housing data to see if the slight weakness persists.
On Wednesday, central bank speeches will dominate again with the RBA’s speech and several speeches from the European Central Bank. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest rate decision will be the highlight in the Asian trade. The interest rate is expected to remain steady at 1.75% with no change in policy.
However, investors will scrutinise the tone and language adopted by the RBNZ to see if the central bank will maintain the same neutral tone seen last time or whether it will join other dovish central banks.
Thursday and Friday will be packed with a series of important events from Japan, the Eurozone and the US. We will have GDP figures for the US, UK and Canada. Both the US and the UK’s economy had expanded despite reflecting a moderate slowdown. However, the Canadian’s economy sunk by 0.1%. The new GDP figures across these major economies will provide more insights into the pace of the global slowdown.
Friday’s releases will probably attract more attention as we will finish the month with a packed US calendar. Given that the Fed took the rate hikes off the table for 2019, the reaction from the US data might be subdued or short-lived even if it is above expectations. However, it can help to bring stability in the US dollar. Alternatively, should the data be on the bearish side, the US dollar might erase the recent gains.
|Tuesday, 26 March 2019
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