Economic Updates

Melbourne Lockdown: Local Investors Mull Worsening Economic Outlook
July 8, 2020

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets Following the highest number of coronavirus cases in a single day, the Premier of Victoria, Daniel Andrews reinstated “Stay at Home” restrictions across metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire from 11:59 ...

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RBA: “QE is not on our Agenda!”
November 29, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets This year’s Annual Dinner of the Australian Business Economists was probably the most important event before the year ends. In a year that saw the RBA cutting interest rates three times, the speech around...

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Is Germany on the Brink of a Technical Recession?
November 12, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets Is Germany on the Brink of a Technical Recession? Europe’s largest economy and the world’s fourth-largest economy is at risk of going into a technical recession.  Such recession arises after two consecutive...

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Did China Retaliate with a Currency War?
August 5, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets A Currency War Did China retaliate with a Currency War? Monday kicked-off with a bang with plenty of big moves in the financial markets. A risk-off sentiment prevails in the markets as dark clouds of trade tari...

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New UK Prime Minister Labelled “Britain Trump”
July 24, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets “Britain Trump” Britain has a new Prime Minister and as highly expected, Boris Johnson won the race over his opponent, Jeremy Hunt to become the new Tory leader. It was a convincing win despite the controver...

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Back-To-Back Interest Rate Cuts
July 2, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets Second Rate Cut The Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rate by 25 basis points which marks the first back-to-back rate cut since 2012. The RBA also sets the interest rate to a record low at 1%: ...

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Hong- Kong Protests Add to Market Angst
June 17, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets It is reported that nearly two million people joined the mass protest against the controversial extradition bill on Sunday despite the government announcing a pause in the legislation on Saturday. It is beca...

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European Parliament Election 2019
May 27, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets European Parliament Election 2019 The 2019 EU Parliament election is one of the most important ones for the bloc amid the rise of nationalism and populist parties. Brexit is also the constant reminder that leavi...

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Housing Market and the Federal Election
May 17, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets Housing Market and the Federal Election "Labor – A fair go for Australia” “Liberal – Building our economy and securing our future” “Nationals – A strong vote for regional Australia” “Greens ...

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An Election Rate Cut?
May 7, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets Among the few interest rate decisions this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia stands out. The Federal election 2019 is fast approaching and analysts are debating whether a rate cut before the election is j...

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Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement
May 3, 2019

It’s a new month which means the latest Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data will be released at 13:30 PM London time on Friday. Why is the announcement important? ...

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US–China Trade Gap at Record High
March 7, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets US-China Trade Gap at Record High Trade Deficit a Decade High- Was a Trade War Worth it? The Trade Deficit reported mid-week surprised the markets as it climbed to a decade-high. We also note that the US-Ch...

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Australian Housing Market
March 6, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets "Australians watch housing markets carefully, perhaps more so than citizens of any other country." Speaking at the Australian Financial Review’s annual business summit, RBA Governor Philip Lowe talked abou...

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National Emergency
February 18, 2019

 By Deepta Bolaky President Donald Trump has declared a national emergency over the US-Mexico border swiftly after the spending bill was approved. It is not the first national emergency the US will face. Other situations of emergency were tri...

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The Royal Commission’s Mammoth Report
February 5, 2019

By Deepta Bolaky  @DeeptaGOMarkets The bombshell report of the Royal Commission is finally out. The report depicts how the Banking, Superannuation and Insurance industries have treated their customers and employees. It highlights the exp...

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By Deepta Bolaky
 @DeeptaGOMarket

EU Recovery Fund

After a standoff between the EU and Germany, following a critical ruling on ECB’s quantitative easing program by Germany’s constitutional court, the gradual reopening of economies of member states within the Eurozone has brought some optimism.

The downside risks for the Eurozone and its shared currency have somewhat eased on the fact that Europe, which was the epicentre of COVID-19 after China, might have gone through the worst phase of the pandemic. The sentiment for the Euro was also buoyed by the EU Recovery fund proposed by Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Emmanuel Macron to help Europe’s mostly hit countries.

Unfortunately, the optimism over the coronavirus fund proposal, which aims to show unity in overcoming the crisis and to achieve quicker economic recovery, was short-lived.

Europe’s Frugal Four 

Amid an unprecedented crisis, the Franco-German proposal was to provide support and reinforce EU financial relations and show that Europe is standing together. Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden, dumbed as the “frugal four” put forward a counter-proposal that highlights the diversion of opinions in helping the Southern members states.

Grants or Loans

The Franco-German proposal is about “overcoming the crisis united and emerging from it stronger”. Both leaders proposed to make outright grants to help countries in need. They want to launch a temporary fund of 500 billion euro for EU budget expenditure:

“This would not provide loans, but rather budget funding for the sectors and regions hit hardest by the crisis. We firmly believe that it is both justified and necessary to now provide funding for this from the European side that we will gradually deploy across several European budgets in the future.”

In contrast, the frugal four wishes to provide loans rather than grants to southern European countries and expect the recipients of loans to comply with the fundamental principles of the EU and commit to strong reforms in repaying the loans. Their two-year and “one-off” proposal appears to also outline how those countries should use the funds and target sectors that are mostly hit based on an assessment.

The coronavirus pandemic is testing the solidarity of European members and is threatening to reawaken a euro crisis. Southern countries like Greece, Italy and Spain lacked the fiscal space they need to put forward an economic stimulus package to support their economies, compared to Northern countries. 

Disparity? Compromise?

Both proposals are saying “yes” to emergency aids to assist with recovery, but the disparity lies on how the funds will be financed to respond to the economic wreckage. The size of the emergency fund, the conditions of the funds or whether it will be grants or loans will be a compromise the markets are expecting to see. However, the type of compromise might be a key factor in determining the relationships of EU members.

Unprecedented times probably need unprecedented Unity.

Euro – The Shared Currency

The fact that Europe may have gone through the worst phase of the coronavirus has somewhat eased the downside risks of the shared currency. But the current geopolitical tensions with China and uncertainties on the EU Recovery plan are putting a lid on the upside momentum of the Euro.

After the sharp plunge in March, the EURUSD pair has been trading within the 1.08 to 1.09 range. Yesterday, the better-than-expected IFO Surveys in Germany has helped the pair to hold ground and hover around the 1.09 level. The recovery plan could mitigate the selling pressure and allow a probable move above 1.10 level if there is a compromise that satisfies the frugal four.

EURUSD

Source: Bloomberg Terminal

The immediate attention turns to the European Commission which is supposed to unveil a draft recovery plan on May 27th, 2020.

By Deepta Bolaky
 @DeeptaGOMarkets

Disclaimer: Articles and videos from GO Markets analysts are based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.

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